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The capacity of arthropod populations to adapt to long-term climatic warming is currently uncertain. Here we combine theory and extensive data to show that the rate of their thermal adaptation to climatic warming will be constrained in two fundamental ways. First, the rate of thermal adaptation of an arthropod population is predicted to be limited by changes in the temperatures at which the performance of four key life-history traits can peak, in a specific order of declining importance: juvenile development, adult fecundity, juvenile mortality and adult mortality. Second, directional thermal adaptation is constrained due to differences in the temperature of the peak performance of these four traits, with these differences expected to persist because of energetic allocation and life-history trade-offs. We compile a new global dataset of 61 diverse arthropod species which provides strong empirical evidence to support these predictions, demonstrating that contemporary populations have indeed evolved under these constraints. Our results provide a basis for using relatively feasible trait measurements to predict the adaptive capacity of diverse arthropod populations to geographic temperature gradients, as well as ongoing and future climatic warming.

 

Experiments and models suggest that climate affects mosquito-borne disease transmission. However, disease transmission involves complex nonlinear interactions between climate and population dynamics, which makes detecting climate drivers at the population level challenging. By analysing incidence data, estimated susceptible population size, and climate data with methods based on nonlinear time series analysis (collectively referred to as empirical dynamic modelling), we identified drivers and their interactive effects on dengue dynamics in San Juan, Puerto Rico. Climatic forcing arose only when susceptible availability was high: temperature and rainfall had net positive and negative effects respectively. By capturing mechanistic, nonlinear and context-dependent effects of population susceptibility, temperature and rainfall on dengue transmission empirically, our model improves forecast skill over recent, state-of-the-art models for dengue incidence. Together, these results provide empirical evidence that the interdependence of host population susceptibility and climate drives dengue dynamics in a nonlinear and complex, yet predictable way. 

Most models exploring the effects of climate change on mosquito‐borne disease ignore thermal adaptation. However, if local adaptation leads to changes in mosquito thermal responses, “one size fits all” models could fail to capture current variation between populations and future adaptive responses to changes in temperature. Here, we assess phenotypic adaptation to temperature inAedes aegypti, the primary vector of dengue, Zika, and chikungunya viruses. First, to explore whether there is any difference in existing thermal response of mosquitoes between populations, we used a thermal knockdown assay to examine five populations ofAe. aegypticollected from climatically diverse locations in Mexico, together with a long‐standing laboratory strain. We identified significant phenotypic variation in thermal tolerance between populations. Next, to explore whether such variation can be generated by differences in temperature, we conducted an experimental passage study by establishing six replicate lines from a single field‐derived population ofAe. aegyptifrom Mexico, maintaining half at 27°C and the other half at 31°C. After 10 generations, we found a significant difference in mosquito performance, with the lines maintained under elevated temperatures showing greater thermal tolerance. Moreover, these differences in thermal tolerance translated to shifts in the thermal performance curves for multiple life‐history traits, leading to differences in overall fitness. Together, these novel findings provide compelling evidence thatAe. aegyptipopulations can and do differ in thermal response, suggesting that simplified thermal performance models might be insufficient for predicting the effects of climate on vector‐borne disease transmission.

 

The temperature-dependence of many important mosquito-borne diseases has never been quantified. These relationships are critical for understanding current distributions and predicting future shifts from climate change. We used trait-based models to characterize temperature-dependent transmission of 10 vector–pathogen pairs of mosquitoes ( Culex pipiens , Cx. quinquefascsiatus , Cx. tarsalis , and others) and viruses (West Nile, Eastern and Western Equine Encephalitis, St. Louis Encephalitis, Sindbis, and Rift Valley Fever viruses), most with substantial transmission in temperate regions. Transmission is optimized at intermediate temperatures (23–26°C) and often has wider thermal breadths (due to cooler lower thermal limits) compared to pathogens with predominately tropical distributions (in previous studies). The incidence of human West Nile virus cases across US counties responded unimodally to average summer temperature and peaked at 24°C, matching model-predicted optima (24–25°C). Climate warming will likely shift transmission of these diseases, increasing it in cooler locations while decreasing it in warmer locations. 

Thermal ecology theory predicts that transmission of infectious diseases should respond unimodally to temperature, that is be maximized at intermediate temperatures and constrained at extreme low and high temperatures. However, empirical evidence linking hot temperatures to decreased transmission in nature remains limited.

We tested the hypothesis that hot temperatures constrain transmission in a zooplankton–fungus (Daphnia dentifera–Metschnikowia bicuspidata) disease system where autumnal epidemics typically start after lakes cool from their peak summer temperatures. This pattern suggested that maximally hot summer temperatures could be inhibiting disease spread.

Using a series of laboratory experiments, we examined the effects of high temperatures on five mechanistic components of transmission. We found that (a) high temperatures increased exposure to parasites by speeding up foraging rate but (b) did not alter infection success post‐exposure. (c) High temperatures lowered parasite production (due to faster host death and an inferred delay in parasite growth). (d) Parasites made in hot conditions were less infectious to the next host (instilling a parasite ‘rearing’ or 'trans‐host' effect of temperature during the prior infection). (e) High temperatures in the free‐living stage also reduce parasite infectivity, either by killing or harming parasites.

We then assembled the five mechanisms into an index of disease spread. The resulting unimodal thermal response was most strongly driven by the rearing effect. Transmission peaked at intermediate hot temperatures (25–26°C) and then decreased at maximally hot temperatures (30–32°C). However, transmission at these maximally hot temperatures only trended slightly lower than the baseline control (20°C), which easily sustains epidemics in laboratory conditions and in nature. Overall, we conclude that while exposure to hot epilimnetic temperatures does somewhat constrain disease, we lack evidence that this effect fully explains the lack of summer epidemics in this natural system. This work demonstrates the importance of experimentally testing hypothesized mechanisms of thermal constraints on disease transmission. Furthermore, it cautions against drawing conclusions based on field patterns and theory alone.

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